The Rise of the Rest

The always insightful Fareed Zakaria has another great article out, The Rise of the Rest. The trends reshaping the global economy Zakaria talks about have been visible, but scattered - many data points whose direction is as yet unclear. Trends like the astonishing economic development, and wealth creation, in formerly sluggish or even dysfunctional countries around the world; the growing challenge to American power from China; and the increase in intra-Asian trade that makes the United States less critical, though still an incredibly important trading partner. It's easy to try to make sense of these forces by saying the U.S. is in decline, but that doesn't really capture what is happening in the world.

Zakaria brings a greater narrative to the breathless "Flat World" hype that Tom Friedman gives us. Zakaria's view is that the United States has actually been very successful in spreading the ideas of capitalism, open markets, and economic reform, and that we are now witnessing the fruits of these efforts throughout the 1980s and 1990s. And as these countries generate their own multinationals and billionaires, their attention naturally begins to focus more and more on what's happening within their countries, and with Lakshmi Mittal, Carlos Slim or Ratan Tata rather than with Donald Trump, Bill Gates or George Bush.

Of course, as other countries rise, the United States declines on a relative basis. The U.S. will be the world's largest economy for a few more decades, and most likely the world's most important country for yet longer, but relative decline seems unavoidable, and a source of anxiety for Americans. Zakaria's view? Things aren't all that bad. Outside of Iraq and Afghanistan, despite all the negative reporting, the world is as peaceful as it has ever been, even including hotspots and conflicts in Nigeria, Somalia, Darfur, etc. And the major countries? While they are happy to have a greater say, even occasionally troublesome China and Russia prefer a stable, orderly, and smoothly functioning international system, and are not likely to rock the boat (yet).

Therefore, Zakaria concludes that the "Rise of the Rest" is a good thing (and inevitable), and that the U.S. still has the opportunity to be the "indispensable country" and chief architect of the new international system. The question, of course, is whether the U.S. can rise to that challenge given its completely dysfunctional politics of the last eight years. Zakaria concludes here, but the question of whether the U.S. will align itself better with the rest of the world is a huge question. Why haven't we fixed our health care system? Why aren't we adequately funding research into newer and cleaner energy sources? Why is our foreign policy so myopically focused on terrorism, ignoring the most powerful countries and forces at work today? These problems are all solvable. I, for one, am hopeful that Americans will recognize and be galvanized by these trends, and/or that better political leadership can tackle the nation's problems. "The Rest" will be watching.

Rise of the Rest (Foreign Affairs):
http://www.foreignaffairs.org/20080501facomment87303/fareed-zakaria/the-future-of-american-power.html
Rise of the Rest (Newsweek):
http://www.newsweek.com/id/135380/